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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 71

Houston Texans 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(11:20) 38-K.Kroeger punts 50 yards to JAX 21, Center-40-A.Brinkman, fair catch by 11-P.Washington.

The Three Options

GO -0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.26 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 71, worth -4.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.66 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 29, worth -1.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.33 EP