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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 42

Jacksonville Jaguars 28 – Houston Texans 31

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 39-C.Little 60 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-55-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +2.36 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 42, worth -1.59 EP
KICK +0.14 EP
What Happened
  • 53% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -1.87 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model