4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 28

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Chicago Bears 21

What Actually Happened

(10:38) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short right to 5-D.London (1-J.Johnson) [92-D.Hardy].

The Three Options

GO +1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.46 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 28, worth -0.93 EP
KICK +1.20 EP
  • 85% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 38, worth -1.96 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model