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Chicago Bears

4-2 HC Ben Johnson
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Atlanta Falcons

2-4 HC Raheem Morris
Sunday 2026-10-18 · 13:00 ET Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta US 🏟 Dome Spread -1.5 O/U 51.5

Win Probability

CHI
47.3%
ATL
52.7%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • CHI offense: +0.058 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • ATL offense: +0.018 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • CHI defense: +0.055 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • Caleb Williams (CHI): +0.115 EPA/dropback in prior starts (CHI starting Caleb Williams in place of Tyson Bagent)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

CHI 23 16–30
–
ATL 24 17–31
Projected margin: ATL by 1 Projected total: 47

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 6

CHI

T.J. Edwards LB Out Hamstring
Dayo Odeyingbo DE Out Quadricep
Kyle Monangai RB Out Thumb
Keyshaun Elliott LB Out Quadricep
Kyler Gordon CB Questionable Calf
Tyrique Stevenson CB Questionable Hip
Caleb Williams QB Questionable Hamstring

ATL

C.J. Henderson CB Out Groin
Za'Darius Smith DE Questionable Neck

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 31
–
ATL 23

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:25 TD CHI (8:25) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 84-C.Loveland for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 6 – ATL 0
  • Q1 01:10 TD CHI (1:10) 4-D.Swift left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 13 – ATL 0
  • Q2 05:49 TD ATL (5:49) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 4-J.Dotson for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 14 – ATL 6
  • Q2 01:30 TD CHI (1:30) (Shotgun) 4-D.Swift right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 20 – ATL 7
  • Q3 01:54 TD CHI (1:54) 23-R.Johnson right guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 27 – ATL 7
  • Q4 15:00 FG CHI (15:00) 8-C.Santos 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. CHI 31 – ATL 7
  • Q4 09:39 TD ATL (9:39) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 8-K.Pitts for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 31 – ATL 13
  • Q4 05:46 TD ATL (5:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short right to 8-K.Pitts for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 31 – ATL 21

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 9 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (6:48) 16-J.Bailey punts 63 yards to CHI 18, Center-49-L.McCullough. 14-K.Raymond to CHI 41 for 23 yards (28-M.Ford; 34-J.Robinson). ATL-34-J.Robinson was injured during the play.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 ATL 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (14:57) 16-J.Bailey punts 55 yards to CHI 18, Center-49-L.McCullough. 14-K.Raymond to CHI 32 for 14 yards (56-H.Perkins; 23-D.Hellams).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CHI 4th & 10 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 43%

    (12:04) 19-T.Taylor punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-46-S.Daly, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 ATL 4th & 5 at the 43
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 55%

    (9:29) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short right to 14-O.Zaccheaus (97-J.Lynch).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CHI 4th & 7 at the 38
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 68%

    (7:23) 8-C.Santos 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CHI 4th & 1 at the 60
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.30 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (1:52) 19-T.Taylor punts 50 yards to ATL 10, Center-46-S.Daly. 17-Z.Branch MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by CHI-39-J.Blackwell at ATL 10.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 ATL 4th & 7 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (:56) 16-J.Bailey punts 35 yards to CHI 30, Center-49-L.McCullough, out of bounds. PENALTY on CHI-92-D.Hardy, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 30.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 ATL 4th & 3 at the 28
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 85%

    (10:38) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short right to 5-D.London (1-J.Johnson) [92-D.Hardy].

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CHI 4th & 12 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 35%

    (6:57) 19-T.Taylor punts 44 yards to ATL 7, Center-46-S.Daly. 14-O.Zaccheaus to ATL 6 for -1 yards (39-J.Blackwell; 30-Z.Scott).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 ATL 4th & 14 at the 98
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (4:43) 16-J.Bailey punts 67 yards to CHI 31, Center-49-L.McCullough. 14-K.Raymond to CHI 48 for 17 yards (87-N.Muse; 23-D.Hellams).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CHI 4th & 11 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 79%

    (15:00) 8-C.Santos 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 ATL 4th & 10 at the 66
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.75 EP
    p(convert) 36%

    (14:38) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 17-Z.Branch to ATL 39 for 5 yards (21-C.Lewis) [20-C.Phillips]. Penalty on ATL-65-M.Bergeron, Offensive Holding, declined.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CHI 4th & 13 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 58%

    (12:19) 19-T.Taylor punts 33 yards to ATL 9, Center-46-S.Daly, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CHI 4th & 11 at the 77 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (3:47) 19-T.Taylor punts 49 yards to ATL 28, Center-46-S.Daly, downed by CHI-46-S.Daly.

    See the full breakdown →