Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 65

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Chicago Bears 21

What Actually Happened

(:56) 16-J.Bailey punts 35 yards to CHI 30, Center-49-L.McCullough, out of bounds. PENALTY on CHI-92-D.Hardy, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 30.

The Three Options

GO -1.13 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.74 EP
58% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 65, worth -3.21 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model