Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 73

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Chicago Bears 14

(14:57) 16-J.Bailey punts 55 yards to CHI 18, Center-49-L.McCullough. 14-K.Raymond to CHI 32 for 14 yards (56-H.Perkins; 23-D.Hellams).

The Three Options

GO -1.61 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.92 EP
59% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 73, worth -4.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model