Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 9 at the 81

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(6:48) 16-J.Bailey punts 63 yards to CHI 18, Center-49-L.McCullough. 14-K.Raymond to CHI 41 for 23 yards (28-M.Ford; 34-J.Robinson). ATL-34-J.Robinson was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -2.22 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.38 EP
60% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 81, worth -4.62 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model