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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 48

Chicago Bears 14 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(12:04) 19-T.Taylor punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-46-S.Daly, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.78 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.23 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 48, worth -2.89 EP
KICK -1.13 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.31 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.95 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 14, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model