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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 11 at the 77

Chicago Bears 31 – Atlanta Falcons 23

What Actually Happened

(3:47) 19-T.Taylor punts 49 yards to ATL 28, Center-46-S.Daly, downed by CHI-46-S.Daly.

The Three Options

GO -2.10 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.27 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 77, worth -4.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 34, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model