4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 5 at the 43

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Chicago Bears 14

What Actually Happened

(9:29) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short right to 14-O.Zaccheaus (97-J.Lynch).

The Three Options

GO +0.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.60 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 43, worth -2.04 EP
KICK -0.25 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.64 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 12, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model