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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 60

Chicago Bears 14 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(1:52) 19-T.Taylor punts 50 yards to ATL 10, Center-46-S.Daly. 17-Z.Branch MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by CHI-39-J.Blackwell at ATL 10.

The Three Options

GO +0.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.87 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 60, worth -3.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 19, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.30 EP