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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 13 at the 42

Chicago Bears 31 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(12:19) 19-T.Taylor punts 33 yards to ATL 9, Center-46-S.Daly, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.01 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 42, worth -2.20 EP
KICK -0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 12, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model