Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 10 at the 66

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Chicago Bears 31

What Actually Happened

(14:38) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 17-Z.Branch to ATL 39 for 5 yards (21-C.Lewis) [20-C.Phillips]. Penalty on ATL-65-M.Bergeron, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO -1.45 EP

What Happened

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.30 EP
64% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 66, worth -3.59 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.75 EP