Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 12 at the 51

Chicago Bears 21 – Atlanta Falcons 7

(6:57) 19-T.Taylor punts 44 yards to ATL 7, Center-46-S.Daly. 14-O.Zaccheaus to ATL 6 for -1 yards (39-J.Blackwell; 30-Z.Scott).

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.36 EP
68% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 51, worth -2.83 EP

KICK -1.29 EP

35% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
65% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model