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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 7 at the 38

Chicago Bears 14 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(7:23) 8-C.Santos 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.78 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 38, worth -2.22 EP
KICK -0.05 EP
What Happened
  • 68% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.26 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 47, worth -2.79 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model