Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 14 at the 98

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Chicago Bears 21

(4:43) 16-J.Bailey punts 67 yards to CHI 31, Center-49-L.McCullough. 14-K.Raymond to CHI 48 for 17 yards (87-N.Muse; 23-D.Hellams).

The Three Options

GO -3.74 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.81 EP
65% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 98, worth -6.19 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (115 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model