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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 11 at the 32

Chicago Bears 28 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 8-C.Santos 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +0.33 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.41 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 32, worth -1.51 EP
KICK +0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 42, worth -2.19 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model