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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 16

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(5:41) 38-C.Ryland 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +0.86 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.45 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 16, worth -1.10 EP
KICK +0.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.13 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26, worth -1.60 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model