Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 83

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:02) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to PIT 42, Center-86-E.Deckers. 10-K.Wetjen pushed ob at TB 44 for 14 yards (29-M.Killebrew). PENALTY on PIT-40-D.Slaughter, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 46.

The Three Options

GO -1.87 EP

49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +1.12 EP
51% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 83, worth -4.72 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model