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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 25

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(7:55) 4-C.McLaughlin 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.39 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +5.12 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25, worth -0.52 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.49 EP
PUNT +0.35 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model