4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 8 at the 44

Los Angeles Rams 9 – Arizona Cardinals 15

What Actually Happened

(3:23) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short left to 23-K.Williams.

The Three Options

GO +0.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +2.80 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 44, worth -1.54 EP
KICK +0.10 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model