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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 35

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16 – Pittsburgh Steelers 19

What Actually Happened

(:13) 4-C.McLaughlin 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +0.64 EP
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +1.18 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 35, worth -0.11 EP
KICK +1.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.94 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 45, worth -0.23 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model