4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 59

Arizona Cardinals 6 – Los Angeles Rams 9

What Actually Happened

(6:57) 12-B.Gillikin punts 36 yards to LA 23, Center-59-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.99 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 59, worth -3.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 18, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP