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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 11 at the 29

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(4:12) 4-C.McLaughlin 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +0.70 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.75 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.00 EP
KICK +1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.56 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model