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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 3

Arizona Cardinals 6 – Los Angeles Rams 9

What Actually Happened

(:49) 38-C.Ryland 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +2.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.01 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 3, worth +0.19 EP
KICK +2.02 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.46 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP