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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 1

Pittsburgh Steelers 16 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16

What Actually Happened

(1:23) 9-C.Boswell 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +3.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.98 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 1, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +2.00 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.60 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.87 EP