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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 56

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(13:44) 42-E.Evans punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +1.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.93 EP
  • 24% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 56, worth -2.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.36 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 17, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.87 EP