4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 27

Los Angeles Rams 9 – Arizona Cardinals 12

What Actually Happened

(2:44) 87-D.Allen up the middle to ARI 27 for no gain (50-J.Gibbens; 1-Ma.Wilson). ARI-97-W.Nolen was injured during the play. ARI-10-J.Sweat was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +2.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.39 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 27, worth -0.93 EP
KICK +1.26 EP
  • 86% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 37, worth -1.90 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model