Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 11 at the 75

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16 – Pittsburgh Steelers 13

(7:10) 9-R.Dixon punts 52 yards to PIT 23, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 10-K.Wetjen.

The Three Options

GO -2.27 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.62 EP
65% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.34 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model