Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 74

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

(1:40) 9-R.Dixon punts 47 yards to PIT 27, Center-86-E.Deckers. 10-K.Wetjen to PIT 23 for -4 yards (19-K.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -2.13 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.95 EP
62% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.01 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model