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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 42

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:56) 19-C.Johnston punts 30 yards to TB 12, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 15-T.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO -0.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.54 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.69 EP
KICK -0.96 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.10 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.21 EP
PUNT -0.63 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model