Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 67

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

(14:18) 19-C.Johnston punts 52 yards to TB 15, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-28-R.Spears-Jennings.

The Three Options

GO -1.62 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.05 EP
61% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.97 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model