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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 42

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(3:46) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 17-G.Bernard to TB 40 for 2 yards (0-Y.Diaby) [23-T.Smith].

The Three Options

GO +0.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.01 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.63 EP
KICK -0.93 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.06 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.10 EP
PUNT -0.78 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model