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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 9

Arizona Cardinals 12 – Los Angeles Rams 9

What Actually Happened

(9:31) 38-C.Ryland 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +1.36 EP
  • 31% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.39 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 9, worth -0.43 EP
KICK +1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.44 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model