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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 70

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(2:23) 9-R.Dixon punts 38 yards to PIT 32, Center-86-E.Deckers, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.35 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.57 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 28, worth -1.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model