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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 19

Arizona Cardinals 9 – Los Angeles Rams 9

What Actually Happened

(6:29) 38-C.Ryland 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +1.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.10 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 19, worth -0.80 EP
KICK +1.35 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 29, worth -1.43 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model