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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 25

Arizona Cardinals 15 – Los Angeles Rams 16

What Actually Happened

(:03) 38-C.Ryland 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +0.59 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +1.49 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25, worth +0.02 EP
KICK +2.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 35, worth -0.06 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model