4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 71

Arizona Cardinals 15 – Los Angeles Rams 9

What Actually Happened

(7:06) 12-B.Gillikin punts 47 yards to LA 24, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 11-A.Bachman to LA 28 for 4 yards (42-D.Taylor-Demerson).

The Three Options

GO -1.59 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.46 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 71, worth -4.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 29, worth -1.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model