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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 30

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(7:15) 9-C.Boswell 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +1.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.06 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.84 EP
KICK +0.43 EP
What Happened
  • 80% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.12 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 40, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT -0.73 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP