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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 73

Los Angeles Rams 9 – Arizona Cardinals 6

What Actually Happened

(5:28) 42-E.Evans punts 46 yards to ARI 27, Center-49-J.Cardona. 81-D.Duvernay pushed ob at ARI 33 for 6 yards (49-J.Cardona).

The Three Options

GO -1.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.79 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 73, worth -3.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.12 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 31, worth -1.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model