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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 55

Arizona Cardinals 15 – Los Angeles Rams 9

What Actually Happened

(2:58) 12-B.Gillikin punts 41 yards to LA 14, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 11-A.Bachman to LA 14 for no gain (36-K.Crawford; 59-C.Kreiter).

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.10 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 55, worth -2.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 16, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model