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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 19 at the 21

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16

What Actually Happened

(8:11) 9-C.Boswell 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +0.68 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.15 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.85 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.33 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model