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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 17 at the 31

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(9:50) 3-S.Shrader 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.86 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 31, worth -1.85 EP
KICK +0.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.15 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 41, worth -2.39 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model