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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 6

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(5:04) 17-B.Aubrey 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +2.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.51 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 6, worth +0.15 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.67 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP