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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 33

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(12:47) 7-H.Butker 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

The Three Options

GO +1.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.06 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 33, worth -0.97 EP
KICK +1.15 EP
What Happened
  • 73% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 43, worth -1.67 EP
PUNT +0.48 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP