Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 8 at the 50

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(10:18) 9-L.Cooke punts 38 yards to DEN 12, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.87 EP
62% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 50, worth -3.09 EP

KICK -1.90 EP

28% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.24 EP
72% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -3.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model