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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 18 at the 58

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(4:19) 9-L.Cooke punts 46 yards to DEN 12, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 31-K.Abrams-Draine to DEN 11 for -1 yards (25-R.Lane).

The Three Options

GO -1.70 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +2.91 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 58, worth -3.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -1.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 18, worth -1.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model