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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 35

New York Giants 6 – Los Angeles Rams 28

What Actually Happened

(6:17) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete deep right to 88-M.Fields (1-E.Forbes). Penalty on NYG-88-M.Fields, Offensive Pass Interference, declined.

The Three Options

GO +0.52 EP
What Happened
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.25 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 35, worth -1.32 EP
KICK +0.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 45, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.35 EP