Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 15 at the 61

Miami Dolphins 6 – San Francisco 49ers 28

(3:55) (Punt formation) 48-B.Pinion FUMBLES (Aborted) at MIA 27, and recovers at MIA 28.

The Three Options

GO -1.59 EP

What Happened

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.89 EP
71% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.42 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.71 EP