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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 27

Denver Broncos 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 13

What Actually Happened

(5:02) 3-W.Lutz 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

The Three Options

GO +1.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.58 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 27, worth -0.90 EP
KICK +1.17 EP
What Happened
  • 83% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 37, worth -1.88 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model